The beginning of the year in the markets took us round trip from the declines of the 4th quarter – but we would caution against thinking everything is ‘business as usual’. In our spring note, link below, we talk about how anticipating rather than reacting is a must for long term investing. We also go deeper into one of our macro themes, demographics & housing.
Our “2019 Outlook” from December continues to be the playbook for the year. We are skeptical about a strong second half recovery and don’t believe the risk/reward set up offers much of an opportunity at broader levels. As such, we still favor international markets over domestic ones and remain acutely focused on fundamentals and valuations. Mid-year Focal Points: pricing power & operating margins (where you’ll find trade effects), international & emerging markets, US housing.
