In the first of our “short takes” of 2021, we talk about cycles – what they are, why they matter, and where the economy sits now. In summary, we’re at the end of year one of a new multi-year business cycle. That means everything is right on track from our outlook in December. And of […]
Right now the market’s focus isn’t Covid-19, but rather on how the collective population perceives Covid-19. The swiftness of our recovery depends on the psychology of global consumers. If fear is widespread for some time, the recovery will be slow. If fear dissipates quickly, the recovery will be fast. In our summer note, we use real-time alternative […]
Forty-six days ago, we wrote “This Time is Different”, the same day the US confirmed its 100th Covid-19 case. Since then we’ve seen massive market gyrations, peak Covid-19 growth rates, and the biggest monetary + fiscal packages in history. It seems like it has been many months – but no, just a long 46 days. […]
